HW Forecast

wiggins, ms
show low, az
johnson city, tx / fredericksburg
suffolk, va 
greenville, ms
dyersburg, tn(friendship)
lohn, tx(brady area)
abilene, tx
kinston, nc


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another shot of winter coming south of I-70
by Christmas for the south and southeast...doesn't
last too long but since the moon will be fairly
full perhaps some birds will move south...

the cold holds on along I-40 and north until the
next shot right before new years....there could
be a news years snow storm from along I-40 from
OK to TN....

large batch of cold air is still showing up for the
first few days of next year....however...it
has built back further west which is not
impossible but not typical of la nina winter

stay tuned.

so another cold front/wave is working south and
also west to east over the next couple of days..
nothing that big in comparison to what has been
happening...looks like next week around the 21st
we will see another small front working into TX
and the southeast with the bulk of that cold going
into the southeast and off the eastern seaboard

what was shaping up to be cold Christmas is showing
a warmup from TX to ND to MN to FL...I am not
sold on this solution.
at any rate...the next front on today's run of
the long range computer is showing a front
coming around the 27th from the northern plains..
by Dec. 28th the front is down to I-20 in TX
stretching NE to NE AR and to the great lakes..
by the 29th the front is off the gulf coast by
AL and nearly to the eastern seaboard but a warm
up is already taking place in TX....and that
particular warmup continues to strengthen and push
into the plains through the first of the year...

this bears watching since the computers are going
back and forth on this time period.....stay tuned

not going to say too much here today....the
only glaring difference I see from yesterday
is that the long range model is showing a/the front
coming a couple of days before Christmas impacting
the central plains and primarily east of the MS valley
down to the southeast.....
and the front that was forecast for Christmas day
itself looks to be a day later than yesterday...
finally the big cold air mass for the end of the
month actually showing up a bit further west than
yesterdays run....still a long ways out

one thing we might say about the pattern...
notice today that a bit of wintertime precip
is happening in the ms valley along I-40 corridor..
if the pattern keeps this up we could be talking
snow in the midsouth...in fact the long range
model is advertising a snow event from north AR
along I-40 east to east TN
Jonesboro #'s
  WED 15| THU 16| FRI 17| SAT 18| SUN 19| MON 20| TUE 21|WED CLIMO
   22  39   | 38  46  | 28  39| 26  35  | 22  38  | 26  41   | 30  41// 24 30    48

Dyersburg #'s
  WED 15| THU 16| FRI 17| SAT 18| SUN 19| MON 20| TUE 21|WED CLIMO
  21  38    | 38  43  | 28  38| 27  34  | 21  39  | 26  42  | 30  41  | 23 32      48

long range computer still showing typcial
la nina weather with the major cold haning out
over the east....I keep thinking that the pattern
will break or run out of cold but over the next
couple of weeks the east will feast on cold if..
generally it seems that a pattern will only last
4-6 weeks give or take...the pattern changed right
at Thanksgiving and if everything holds it looks
like cold fronts will continue to roll south through
the end of the month with some SPECIAL strong cold
showing up over the northern MS valley and the
Great lakes on the 29th....this will be very
interesting to watch

next front comes down Thursday working from TX to
the east coast by the start of next week...nothing
too special and not as strong as the cold now...
next front is poised for Christmas eve and then
Christmas day reaching much of the south by
Christmas day and then reinforcing cold air will
be working south it looks like through the end of
the month.....and like I was mentioning earlier
we may have a polor vortex sitting on Lake Superior
Jonesboro, AR#'s below

   TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16| FRI 17| SAT 18| SUN 19| MON 20|TUE CLIMO
      13  30| 25  39  | 37  47  | 27  38  | 27  41| 24  42    | 29  47   | 32      31 48

dyersburg, TN #'s

 TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16| FRI 17| SAT 18| SUN 19| MON 20|TUE CLIMO
 12  25   | 21  39    | 39  45   | 28  39 | 27  46 | 26  44     | 29  48   | 33    33 48

a little more back and forth....
the front coming for the weekend looks to be right
on track...this thing has the bulk of the cold
pointed at the appalachain mountains...who gets
the most of this?  I-40 north from AR to the east
coast...one thing I am looking at with the way
the jetstream is going to be pointed(at the
appalachains) is that any ducks that may migrate
could get swept east into the ohio valley but
at any rate...one part of this forecast will be
places going down below freezing and hopefully
you can target the ducks better by narrowing down
where they will be...
front still appears to be on the table for next
weekend around the 18th although not quite as
strong.....a secondary surge looks possible on
the 21st...and finally the solution for another
shot of cold on Christmas has come out 2 days in
a row so many should feel the weather that ought
to go with the season...looks like the numbers are getting lower!!!
Jonesboro, AR #'s
FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16|FRI CLIMO--average
 29  46| 39  56  | 25  33  | 17  27  | 20  41  | 31  50   | 40  59  | 45    32 49

Dyersburg, TN #'s
FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16|FRI CLIMO--average
 29  48| 39  55 | 26  33  | 15  26   | 18  40  | 31  50   | 41  61  | 47    34 49

next front pushing across the Dakotas on Friday..
down to TX by Saturday as well as C-MO, OK, and
NW AR...Sunday AM has the front down to the gulf
by way of the MS river...the front is also deep
in the southeast to NW GA stretching N into WV
and by Sunday pm the front is off the southeast
atlantic coast while a BIG storm is whacking
the NE...temperatures going down below freezing in
the mid miss valley for a day or two and perhaps
longer in the ohio valley..
next front not south of I-70 or 80 until the
next weekend which is somewhat inline with the
monday forecast....at any rate...getting some
flip flopping back and forth now...showing
a warmup for a couple of days before Christmas
and now the latest showing another cold front rolling
south the day before Christmas and Christmas day

speaking of flip flopping.....the numbers for
Jonesboro backing off on the cold just a bit for
early next week but GFS(computer that made the
forecast) is notorious for flip flopping forecasts
5 days out....this being said, there have been too
many times when this situation has happened where
it backs off and then the time comes for that forecast
period and what do  you know it had it right in the
first place..........

here are the Jonesboro, AR #'s

THU 09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15|THU CLIMO--Average
 21  44  | 30  47| 39  52  | 27  36    | 20  34   | 23  40  | 30  44    | 31     32 50

thought I would throw in Dyersburg, TN #'s

THU 09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15|THU CLIMO--average
  18  46| 30  48  | 39  49  | 31  36  | 21  30   | 20  39   | 30  45   | 29     34 50

cold front still headed south for the weekend
but looking a little bit slow especially for westTX,
also looking stronger for the MS Valley and
the Ohio valley...temperatures look like they will
go down below freezing in the MiSS valley and
Ohio valley from 18 to 24 hours and perhaps even
more...talking about portions of AR, TN, MO, MS,
and even more so for states north of there and
also east like north GA and AL

todays run of the long range model has taken away
the cold front starting on the 16th and lumped
it together with the one on the 20th...this is
a plausible situation as I have seen it before or
it could be a sleeper....at any rate the front now
being shown on the 20th shows lots of cold air
deep into TX stretching east to the southeast
in the week leading up to Christmas although Jesus'
birthday may end up on a warming trend

here are the numbers for Jonesboro, AR...
we will do a comparison to see how they change
over the next week but it is looking good for
a small freeze up next week
KJBR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/07/2010  1200 UTC                      
FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192     
      WED 08| THU 09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14|WED CLIMO
N/X  21  39  | 21  47   | 29  50| 39  56  | 35  39   | 18  30   | 19  37  | 24      32 50

hard to pick out a cold front when it is already
cold in an area...
another wave of cold is moving south for wednesday
for many.....there again...hard to tell when it
is already fairly cold or cool...
the bulk of the cold continues to go more
east than west and once again this is typical of
the la nina winter.....
this weekend something more significant is coming
across the canadian border, should be in the
northern plains by Friday afternoon...by
Saturday morning the front is down to I-70 in KS
and southern Iowa, by Saturday pm the front
looks to be down to I-10 in west texas stretching
east to North MS and north to the Great Lakes..
Sunday morning the front is down to the gulf
by way of the florida phandle stretching north to
the appalachains...and Sunday afternoon the front
is off the eastern seaboard...(from the mid miss
valley to the east coast this will be a big
precip maker)

next front moves across the Dakota on Thursday
the 16th...by Friday the 17th the front is down
to northern KS..by Friday pm the 17th the front
is down to near I-10 in west TX stretching northeast
to to central MO...by the 18th the front is
down across the MS Delta by hwy 82...that
afternoon has the front down to the gulf in
south Miss. stretching NE to NW GA...
Sunday the 19th has the front across much of
GA stretching NE to WV and by Sunday pm the front
is off the eastern seaboard....

by Monday the 20th the next front will be pushing
across the Dakotas...by Tuesday the 21st the front
will be as far south as I40 from TX to east TN,
and it looks like by Wed. the 22nd the front should
be as far south as I-10 from TX to Florida with
a large freezup possible over the midwest from the
miss river to the ohio????

everybody cooling down and then warming up by the
weekend....next front rolling across the dakotas
by Saturday making it as far south as the
ok phandle by Sunday morning....by Monday morning
the front looks to be past I-40 from TX to east TN,
and then that afternoon the front is down to
I-20 from TX to GA....and down to the Gulf by
Tuesday morning....and also past I-10 in west TX
colder air hangs around a few days but then another
warm up....next front moves from west to east
across the northern plains around the 10-12th..
secondary push winds up to come further south...
by monday the 13th the next front is organized
and moving across NE and into NW KS stretching
east to central IL and east ESE to the atlantic..
by the 14th the front is just north of I-40
from TX to TN and north carolina....wed. the 15th
has the front down to I-10 in tx to I20 in north
louisiana to the carolinas....by the afternoon of
the 15th the front looks to be down deep in the
rio grande valley stretching east new orleans
and across the north half of GA....
better soak it up while you can for a couple of reasons:
the winter solstice is just a few weeks away
and the days will start getting longer....
one reason that ducks migrate is because of shorther
days....of course they will migrate when the weather
pushes them to but there are usually only a few
cold spells during the season....since this started
about Thanksgiving and should be lasting a few
weeks, we could be running out of cold until later
in Jan.....just a thought

long range outlook looks good as far as the
progression of cold fronts....
next week we are getting loaded up..by Sunday
the next batch of cold is pushinginto the northwest
U.S. in the mid miss valley by Wed. and then to
the east coast by Thursday.....brief warm up
from west to east over the weekend...another
good far south shot by Dec. 6th and again on the
pierre, sd #'s
WED 24     | THU 25  | FRI 26| SAT 27| SUN 28| MON 29| TUE 30|WED   CLIMO
N/X  15  15 | -2  18    |  6  35  | 18  40   | 19  39  | 19  30    | 12  29  | 12      18 37

jonesboro, ar, #'s     
      WED 24| THU 25| FRI 26| SAT 27| SUN 28| MON 29| TUE 30|WED CLIMO
N/X  41  66  | 50  50  | 26  47| 28  55   | 31  56   | 41  55  | 40  51   | 32       36 55

cold air is gathering in the north and the moon
is pretty full....should have some birds flying
south with this cold outbreak....not much time
today to write but it is coming and will be short
lived especially in the southern and western plains,
this goes along well with a la nina pattern...
at any rate, should be the coldest air of the seaon
and next week another good shot will roll south..
most of it there again going to be east of the
mississippi valley and north of I-40
check out the latest snowcover map here

check out these numbers for pierre, sd

      TUE 23| WED 24| THU 25| FRI 26| SAT 27| SUN 28| MON 29|TUE CLIMO
N/X  -5  20|     14  17|     -1  19|     7  36|  20  42| 20  37   |    19  29|   9      18 37

and the numbers for jonesboro, ar
     TUE 23| WED 24| THU 25| FRI 26| SAT 27| SUN 28| MON 29|TUE CLIMO
N/X  49  61 | 43  64     | 51  51   | 29  48| 27  53  | 32  56   | 41  56   | 37    36 55

forecast looks reasonably the same...front next week may be 6-12 hours earlier than previosly thought.....
here are the #'s for pierre, sd  still getting colder and cold air rolls down hill(south and east)
     FRI 19| SAT 20| SUN 21| MON 22| TUE 23| WED 24| THU 25|FRI CLIMO
N/X  26  34   | 14  31  | 19  35  | 11  20    |  1  16   |  1  16    |  5  31   | 17   20 39

Jonesboro #'s
     FRI 19| SAT 20| SUN 21| MON 22| TUE 23| WED 24| THU 25|FRI CLIMO
N/X  35  57| 40  65  | 50  69   | 53  70   | 55  66  | 52  62    | 33  48   | 31    37 57

cold front working south and east right now...
not a big deal not very long lived....after the
warmup this weekend and next week though we will
get a true norther....still not until THanksgiving
day for southern areas...

at any rate...this Sunday....the first wave
of the next front comes across the Dakotas...
it is a slow mover....down to I-80 in NE by Monday
AM as well as MN...by Tuesday am the 23rd the
front is down to NW KS stretching NE to WI...
by Wed. am the front is to the OK phandle stretching
NE to Northern MO to Northern NY....Thanksgiving
morning the front is down to Lubbock, TX stretching
NE to southern MO to PA north of the ohio river...
by Friday the 26th AM...the front is down to eagle
pass, TX to I-10 in LA stretching NE to the
Appalachains and the northeast....by Sat AM
the front has cleared the eastern seaboard and the
warmup has already begun for TX and the plains..
by the 30th another cold front is showing up..
looks to stay near I-70 and I-80 corridor moving
from west to east.....by December the 2nd or 3rd..
another strong front is moving across the Dakotas...
many strong cold fronts come in the first few days
of December and again between the 9th and 15th of

number for pierre, sd(this is a front line area to
watch where cold hits first and by watching this
area we can see how much the model will be off
and expect similar errors at stations further south
and east)

look how much the #'s have lowered on Mon 22nd

      THU 18| FRI 19| SAT 20| SUN 21| MON 22| TUE 23| WED 24|THU CLIMO
 N/X  20  50| 24  35| 15  35  | 21  36   | 15  29   | 10  18  |  5  15    |  1       20 40

number for Jonesboro, AR
      THU 18| FRI 19| SAT 20| SUN 21| MON 22| TUE 23| WED 24|THU CLIMO
 N/X  43  54| 37  60| 42  65 | 48  69   | 53  70     | 55  70  | 51  64   | 42     37 57

one little shot of cooler air moving south and also
east over the next couple of days...next week
is the main game though....the cold will be
building in the northern plains and southern canada
and will be unleashed next week just in time for
Thanksgiving...this major front should be pushing
across the dakotas on Monday the 22nd, by the am
of the 23rd the front is down to NW KS stretching
back east to Iowa and WI, that Tuesday pm the
front is down to I70 and by the 24th th front looks
to be down to near I-40 in TX stretching back to
Central MO,...it is not until Thanksgiving day that
it pushes down to I-20 in west TX and gets off
the eastner seaboard north of DC...I think this
is going to be wrong and I think it will be
earlier...at any rate. by the 26th the front
is down to I-10 in texas and across I-20 in
north, la stretching back to the appalachains...
not until friday pm does the front clear the gulf
in south louisiana and reach I-20 in western GA,
by Saturday am the 27th the front is off the eastern
seaboard by the carolinas....a large cold air mass
looks to be settling in from the central plains
east to finish out November and start december...
a warm up looks to be taking place by this time
in the western plains....all of this goes along
quite a bit with the typical la nina weather pattern..
...there could be a thanksgiving snow event along
I-40 from texas to the east coast(not the whole
way but somewhere along there)

here are the numbers for pierre, sd..I think
we will see this cold stronger than what
forecasts have it for....computers usually underestimate
low level artic cold
TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19| SAT 20| SUN 21| MON 22|TUE 
 26  42| 28  33    | 16  41   | 26  39  | 17  35  | 20  38   | 22  34  | 14
numbers for Jonesboro, AR
TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19| SAT 20| SUN 21| MON22|TUE 
  38  50| 37  61     | 40  57  | 33  58 | 36  62  | 42  63   | 48  65  | 49

forecast is still the same perhaps 6-12 hours behind
...cooler weather setting
up for the weekend...cold is getting more intense
for a nice unloading right before Thanksgiving

not going to say much today.....the long range
model is showing the cold front coming around
the 19th and 20th to be stronger than yesterdays
run....we may watch this time period for model
busts(how bad the model gets the temperatures wrong)

warming trend taking place over the next few
days for many from the plains to the ohio valley
a pacific front(a front with origins in the
pacific as opposed to artic) will be moving
from west to east starting tomorrow..heading
into the plains...nothing that impressive...it
should open the gate though for some stronger
polar air for the weekend....by Tuesday afternoon
the norhtern front range will be impacted..by
Wed. am the front is down into NW KS...some of thi
is getting to central plains but the secondary
push coming on Thursday gets it going....by
Thursday am the front is from MN to western NE,
Thursday pm, the front is down to Iowa, and nearly
to the TX phandle...Friday morning has the front
reaching to I-20 in west TX while stretching
back NE to NW MO and to the great lakes...friday
pm put the front to the rio grand near eagle lake
in texas...back to NW AR and MO...saturday morning
we have the front down across most of AR,....sat.
pm the front is down past I-20 in MS and in the
Ohio valley....another surge comes down the front
range shoving cold air again into west texas..
on Monday...a shortlived shot it appears...
around the 18th another front is pushing into
the northern plains....by the 19th and 20th it
looks to be across the central plains and to the
southern plains....by the 21st and 22nd it is in
the southern MS valley and southeast....by
Wed. the 24th another front it just about to cross
into the Dakotas from canada

good cold setting up for the southeast this weekend,
warming trend starts in the west....
next front enters the dakotas on tues. morning
and makes it as far south as NE by tuesday pm...
by Wed. am the 10th the front is down to KS and
in western Iowa...then it heads east to the great
lakes by Thursday....a secondary surge comes later
to help it get further south....Thursday pm
it looks to be knocking on TX and OK phandle door,
and Friday morning the 12th it looks to have made
it down to I-10 in west TX stretching NE to
NW MO and NE towards the great lakes...by Friday
pm the front is across northern AR and NNE to
the great lakes...
by Sunday a stronger front looks to setup near I-70
from CO to IL....looks like there will be a fair
amount of cold air involved and with frequent waves
moving along this will spill south into TX, the
MS valley and southeast....the bulk of the cold
really looks to setup right near I-70 and north

setting up to be a fairly cold weekend(compared to
average)east of the Mississippi and for the southeast.
Texas and the plains will be on the warm up...
still looking at some cold air building up in the
plains next week....may not move far south until
the 2nd half of the weekend...in fact, todays
long range run has next weeks cold air staying
down the front range into texas and north of I-70,
but not to much in the mid or southern MS valley....the bulk of
the cold appears to be building in Canada, hopefully
for realease in the next weekend past the 18th

the good part about the cold staying a bit north
next week is the long range computer is showing
a snow storm in the plains next week....here is
the kicker...it is showing when the cold does
break out in the phandle of texas that snow will
be happening there...I am sure it is not unheard
of but I will believe it when I see it

cooler air will be pushing south nearly all
week across the southern plains thanks to the
upper level and surface low pressure systems
in east texas(that will bring rain to there
and la and the southern ms valley)...once that
system moves out the cooler air will be able to
move south in those areas as well and further
east than that but it doesn't look to happen
until wed.pm into thursday...front is noticeable
from NE AR to the ohio valley on Wed pm and then
down past I-20 from MS to GA by Thursday am..colder
air rolls south half of the weekend from the Mississipp
east...by friday pm a warming trend is beginning
from the southern plains to the northern plains
and moving east...but by Monday the 8th another
front is ready and moving across the dakotas
and into NE and Iowa...by Tuesday am the front
has surged down to I-40 in TX stretching back NE
to NW MO, and Tuesday pm the front is to I-20
in west TX to I-40 in eastern OK to NW MO,
by Wed AM the 10th the front is in SW TX to central
AR, and that afternoon the front is down past
I-20 in MS and getting to the eastern seaboard
by the weekend....next front to watch coming
from the north should be around the 14th and it
will either pave the way for a secondary front
around the 17th or another front altogether is
setting up across much of the nation....
while this seems great, Canada's temperatures
look to be running above average...this colder is
is displaced right now by the warmer air over
the northern part of north america....ducks and geese
do fly south with harsh weather as well as
shortening of the the days(they are hard wired for it)

forecast is still about the same....looking to
next weekend...especially for the start of deer
season in TX...the front may not be pushing in
until late Sunday into Monday....also the front
coming around the 10-13th looks to breaking up
in a 2 part series...the 2nd stronger than the first
with some very cold air coming from northwest
canada and entering Montana by Nov. 13th...
look at this snow cover in the dakotas....too bad
it won't stay like this....believe it or not
the long range computer is showing snow in the
central plains on the 11th and then again in the
central and northern plains on the 13th...I believe
the latter more
Click for indepth snow information

everything is looking about the same as yesterday,
the front coming south around the 10-12th is
looking stronger than yesterday....
have you seen the blizzard in the Dakotas??
Click for indepth snow information


 dyersburg, tn(friendship)

 abilene, tx

wiggins, ms
show low, az
johnson city, tx / fredericksburg
suffolk, va 
greenville, ms
lohn, tx(brady area)
kinston, nc